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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Economist's View: "The Unfortunate Uselessness of Most 'State of the Art' Academic Monetary Economics"

Economist's View: "The Unfortunate Uselessness of Most 'State of the Art' Academic Monetary Economics":
...in order to get to mathematical forms that can be solved, the models had to be simplified. And when they are simplified, something must be sacrificed. So what do you sacrifice? Hopefully, it is the ability to answer questions that are the least important, so the modeling choices that are made reveal what the modelers though was most and least important.

The models we built were very useful for asking whether the federal funds rate should go up or down a quarter point when the economy was hovering in the neighborhood of full employment ,or when we found ourselves in mild, 'normal' recessions. The models could tell us what type of monetary policy rule is best for stabilizing the economy. But the models had almost nothing to say about a world where markets melt down, where prices depart from fundamentals, or when markets are incomplete. When this crisis hit, I looked into our tool bag of models and policy recommendations and came up empty for the most part. It was disappointing. There was really no choice but to go back to older Keynesian style models for insight.

The reason the Keynesian model is finding new life is that it specifically built to answer the questions that are important at the moment. The theorists who built modern macro models, those largely in control of where the profession has spent its effort in recent decades,; did not even envision that this could happen, let alone build it into their models. Markets work, they don't break down, so why waste time thinking about those possibilities."

Part of the reason that macroeconomics has not developed tools (models) to deal with economic crises is that they are rare. Why bother building models when there isn't enough data to test them? One's academic career is better served analyzing normal economic times (like 1945-2007) for which there is ample data to test the theories.

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