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Wednesday, June 3, 2009

According to Ken Rogoff, the stagflation of the 1970's was caused by monetary expansion [plus the oil price shock] due to the "political business cycle". That is the increase in spending (decrease in taxes) and increases in money supply that often happen just before elections.
In theory, the U.S. Federal Reserve is independent of the executive branch. But just listen to the 1972 White House tapes of Nixon’s blistering exchanges with then Federal Reserve Board Chairman Arthur Burns. Historians can debate whether Nixon intimidated Burns or if the chairman simply succumbed to faulty economics. Regardless, Burns certainly delivered the goods. In the run-up to the 1972 election, he printed money like it was going out of style, wreaking havoc with global price stability and exacerbating worldwide inflation.

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