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Saturday, August 15, 2009

More on deficits and interest rates (wonkish) - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

More on deficits and interest rates (wonkish) - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com: "I noted that over the past decade there has been a close negative correlation between deficits and interest rates:"


This is the exact opposite of what macroeconomics textbooks teach.  If there is deficit spending, the net national savings rate tends to go down and the interest rate goes up (as in the standard savings and investment graph).  That is true during economic growth.  However, during a recession, there is excess savings because consumers try to save more and firms tend to invest a lot less and that makes the interest rate drop (again as the standard savings and investment graph would predict). The reason is that short-run deficit fluctuations are caused by the automatic stabilizers (tax revenues automatically decline and government spending automatically increases)
Read the whole thing.  

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