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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Political Business Cycle

When the economy is getting better, presidents are almost always re-elected and their party gains seats.  When the economy is getting worse, presidents usually lose and their party is also punished.  Nevermind that voters are often irrational in voting this way, it is a fact of life.  In a political system that depends upon checks and balances, this gives an incentive to the party that is out of the White House to block growth-enhancing policies. 

CNBC:
Top Congressional Republicans Tuesday took the unusual step of telling the Federal Reserve to refrain from further "intervention'' in the economy on the eve of a policy decision by the U.S. central bank.  The group, which included the top two Republicans in both houses of Congress, said the Fed's policies have been ineffective at supporting economic expansion and boosting employment.  ...The letter was signed by House Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl.
It was a rare direct recommendation from Capitol Hill on monetary policy, which is supposed to be conducted free of political pressure.
The Fed said it had received the letter, which was made public by Republican leaders, but had no further comment.
With economic prospects fading dramatically after a damaging U.S. debt downgrade in August and an escalation of European financial turmoil, the Fed has made clear it is intent on taking further steps to lift growth. Fed officials argue that, while growth remains anemic, its unconventional monetary support have at least forestalled a prolonged period of damaging deflation.
Officials at the central bank differ on how best to address the economy's woes, analysts expect Bernanke to muster a consensus behind a plan to rebalance the Fed's portfolio to push down longer-term interest rates. 
..."We have serious concerns that further intervention by the Federal Reserve could exacerbate current problems or further harm the U.S. economy," the letter said. 
Further harm to the U.S. economy would only help Republican electoral power. 
Republican leaders were deeply critical of the Fed's move late last year to make additional bond purchases, and blocked a nominee to the Fed's board earlier this year. The nominee, Peter Diamond,
 Diamond won the Nobel Prize last year!  He was clearly qualified and yet they blocked him.  
Indeed, the Fed has become a political campaign issue ahead of next year's presidential elections, with Mitt Romney from Massachusetts saying he would not reappoint Bernanke and Texas Republican Rick Perry calling the Fed chief's actions "treasonous."
"If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don't know what y'all will do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas," Perry told supporters in Iowa last month.

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